Monetary gold wikileaks - 1973PRETOR04405_b

 SUMMARY: ARAB OIL BOYCOTT CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN PRESS. IN GENERAL,EMPHASIS ON SA WEAPONS (CAPE ROUTE AND GOLD) TO FIGHT BOYCOTT.INFLATIONARY IMPACT AND THREAT TO BUSINESS CON- FIDENCE ALSO CITED.ROLE OF HOMELAND LEADERS AND NEIGHBORING BLACK STATES IN OPPOSING BOYCOTT CONTINUES TO BE CITED.END SUMMARY.

1. SUNDAY EXPRESS POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT CITING "SENIOR POLITICIANS AND ECONOMISTS" OUTLINED SA WEAPONS TO FIGHT BOYCOTT. MOST POWERFUL WEAPON SEEN TO BE REFUSAL OF BUNKER FUEL AND OTHER SUPPLIES TO SHIPS ROUNDING CAPE ENROUTE MIDDLE EAST AND/OR CERTAIN AFRICAN STATES.IN THIS CONTEXT,POSSIBILITY RAISED OF ACTING IN CONCERT WITH PORTUGAL.SECOND WEAPON SEEN AS GOLD, EITHER OFFERING GOLD FOR OIL ("THE IDEAL INTRODUCTION TO THE LUCRATIVE BLACK MARKET IN OIL") OR WITHOLDING GOLD FROM FREE MARKET TO FORCE UP PRICES TO INTOLERABLE LEVEL THEN OFFERING GOLD AT DISCOUNT FOR OIL. ARTICLE REASONS THAT ARAB COUNTRIES REQUIRING HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF PAYMENTS IN GOLD WHICH PLACES THEM LARGELY AT MERCY OF SA GOLD SELLING POLICY.

2. ACCOMPANYING EDITORIAL FINDS WEAKNESS IN BOYCOTT THREAT (THERE WAYS OF GETTING THINGS AS SHOWN BY RHODESIA; ARAB UNITY FRAGILE:BOYCOTT WILL LEAD TO BLACK MARKET WHERE SA CAN GET OIL: AND ARAB PREFERANCE FOR GOLD). BASIC ARGUMENT,HOWEVER,IS THAT BOYCOTT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED SINCE"WEST EUROPE WILL NOT RPT NOT BE PREPARED INDEFINATELY TO HAVE THEIR ECONOMIES AND THEIR ECONO- MIC GROWTH DESTROYED BY ARAB BLACKMAILERS".ALTHOUGH IT POSSIBLE BOYCOTT AGAINST SA,RHODESIA AND PORTUGAL WILL CONTINUE ON PAPER, "SOUTH AFRICAS TRADING ALLIES WILL ALSO HELP ENSURE THAT THE SA ECONOMY IS NOT BROUGHT DOWN BECAUSE OF A LACK OF OIL."

3. SUNDAY TIMES EDITORIAL REJECTS EFFORTS TO MINIMIZE BOYCOTT THREAT AND ARGUES THAT ONLY CHANGE IN SA POLICY (I.E. REJECTION OF NAT GOVERNMENT.) PROVIDES LASTING SOLUTION.HOWEVER, IT NOTES THAT IF ARABS "FIND THAT THEIR BOYCOTT IS AN EMPTY THREAT,WE IMAGINE THAT THEY WILL NOT WORRY UNDULY.THEY HAVE MADE THEIR GESTURE TO THE BLACK AFRICAN STATES AND THAT IS PROBABLY ALL THAT CONCERNS THEM.

4. RAND DAILY MAIL EDITORIAL EMPHAZISES THAT SA LIKELY TO "SUFFER LESS FROM AN ACTUAL SHORTAGE OF FUEL THAN FROM THE INFLATIONATY EFEECTS OF GETTING IT,"

5. SABC DEC. 3 MORNING BROADCAST STRESSED ROLE OF HOMELAND LEADERS AND GOVERNMENT OF SWAZILAND,LESOTHO AND BOTSWANA IN CONVINCING ARABS AND OTHER AFRICANS OF UNFORTUNATE IMPACT OF BOYCOTT ON BLACKS,OTHER REPORTS HAVE NOTED THAT POSITION TAKEN BY KWAZULU CHIEF BUTHLEZI AT ADDIS DIALOGUE CONFERENCE WILL BE EXTREMLY IMPORTANT.
 HURD

Source: https://www.wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/1973PRETOR04405_b.html

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