Wednesday, October 31, 2012
JEA - THE OIL CRISIS: THIS TIME THE WOLF IS HERE
THE OIL CRISIS: THIS TIME THE WOLF IS HERE
By James E. Akins
"In a recent meeting in Kuwait it was suggested that Arabs accumulate their money and simply float it from country to country, depending on how each country reacts to Arab problems. T'he difficulties of such an action are surely underrated, but the fact that it was considered and debated must give us some pause. Frankly, however, it is a problem I am convinced we will never face. I do not believe the Arabs will ever accumulate anything remotely approximating the figure of $100 billion. Either they will spend the money at home or in the Arab world or they will find adequate investments for it abroad. If they do not, or cannot, they will very likely conclude that the oil had best stay in the ground—and this would cause a problem for the developed world far greater than the floating billions"
...
"OPEC cannot usefully be compared to other producer cartels. It controls a product which is irreplaceable in the short run, and is vitally necessary to the economies of every technologically advanced country. The main oil producers are not competing with each other for larger shares of the consumer market—as would be the case in other producer cartels. Probably the most important reason for OPEC solidarity is that the key countries, notably Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Libya, do not need more income; they are unsure of how they could use it if they had it, and they fear the international consequences of acquiring too much wealth."
...
"The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, without doubt, could destroy OPEC. It could produce oil in much greater quantities than it does today; it could drive the price of oil down to the mythical $1.00 a barrel, and every OPEC country would be ruined. But Saudi Arabia would also ruin itself in the process. Using the economists' expression, Saudi Arabia would not "maximize" its income; it would only "maximize" its production, and even its enormous reserves would soon be exhausted. It is difficult to see what folly could possess Saudi Arabia to take such action; any consumer government that assumed that Saudi Arabia would (or could) do this without an internal revolution would be guilty of an even greater folly. "
Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~twod/oil-ns/articles/for_aff_aikins_oil_crisis_apr1973.pdf
By James E. Akins
"In a recent meeting in Kuwait it was suggested that Arabs accumulate their money and simply float it from country to country, depending on how each country reacts to Arab problems. T'he difficulties of such an action are surely underrated, but the fact that it was considered and debated must give us some pause. Frankly, however, it is a problem I am convinced we will never face. I do not believe the Arabs will ever accumulate anything remotely approximating the figure of $100 billion. Either they will spend the money at home or in the Arab world or they will find adequate investments for it abroad. If they do not, or cannot, they will very likely conclude that the oil had best stay in the ground—and this would cause a problem for the developed world far greater than the floating billions"
...
"OPEC cannot usefully be compared to other producer cartels. It controls a product which is irreplaceable in the short run, and is vitally necessary to the economies of every technologically advanced country. The main oil producers are not competing with each other for larger shares of the consumer market—as would be the case in other producer cartels. Probably the most important reason for OPEC solidarity is that the key countries, notably Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Libya, do not need more income; they are unsure of how they could use it if they had it, and they fear the international consequences of acquiring too much wealth."
...
"The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, without doubt, could destroy OPEC. It could produce oil in much greater quantities than it does today; it could drive the price of oil down to the mythical $1.00 a barrel, and every OPEC country would be ruined. But Saudi Arabia would also ruin itself in the process. Using the economists' expression, Saudi Arabia would not "maximize" its income; it would only "maximize" its production, and even its enormous reserves would soon be exhausted. It is difficult to see what folly could possess Saudi Arabia to take such action; any consumer government that assumed that Saudi Arabia would (or could) do this without an internal revolution would be guilty of an even greater folly. "
Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~twod/oil-ns/articles/for_aff_aikins_oil_crisis_apr1973.pdf
Monday, October 29, 2012
Thursday, October 25, 2012
WW - Which Way Forward? 5/6 - video
William White, Chairman of the Economic Development and Review
Committee, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
speaks on panel, entitled "Which Way Forward: Reflections on Global
Turmoil and the Role of Markets, Governments, and Civil Society" at the
Institute for New Economic Thinking's (INET) Paradigm Lost Conference in
Berlin. April 12, 2012
Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsQ_rSeysAA&feature=plcp
Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsQ_rSeysAA&feature=plcp
C-LH - Optimal Currency Areas and Governance - The Challenge of Europe - video
Carl-Ludwig Holtfrerich: Optimal Currency Areas and Governance - The Challenge of Europe (1/8)
Source: http://www.ecb.int/stats/exchange/eurofxref/html/eurofxref-graph-usd.en.html
Source: http://www.ecb.int/stats/exchange/eurofxref/html/eurofxref-graph-usd.en.html
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
LAT - on Economics, Conventional Wisdom and Public Policy - video
Lord Adair Turner, Chair of the FSA, on Economics, Conventional Wisdom and Public Policy
Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Vz0vBz9x7E&feature=relmfu
Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Vz0vBz9x7E&feature=relmfu
TPS - Keynote Speech, INET Conference @ King's - video
Mrt: "No system lasts forewer."
19:36 min
Enjoy!
Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3lggNnTjbM&feature=related
19:36 min
Enjoy!
Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3lggNnTjbM&feature=related
Swiss gold franc web site - update
An update on the Swiss Gold Franc initiative.
Source: http://www.goldfranc.org/newsletter/
Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtCHs5lg7ug
1st Source on AFB: http://anotherfreegoldblog.blogspot.fi/2011/08/swiss-gold-franc-web-site.html
Source: http://www.goldfranc.org/newsletter/
Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtCHs5lg7ug
1st Source on AFB: http://anotherfreegoldblog.blogspot.fi/2011/08/swiss-gold-franc-web-site.html
Thursday, October 18, 2012
BIS - Past and future of central bank cooperation: policy panel discussion
BIS Papers
No 27
Past and future of central bank cooperation: policy panel discussion
Fourth BIS Annual Conference, 27-29 June 2005 - celebrating 75 years of the Bank for International Settlements, 1930-2005
Monetary and Economic Department
February 2006
1. pg 13 Opening remarks - W R White
2. pg 29 Comments - P.Volcker
Source: http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap27.pdf
BIS - AG - Leuven - Mr. Greenspan addresses some key roles of a central bank
Mr. Greenspan addresses some key roles of a central bank
Remarks by the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System, Mr. Alan Greenspan, at the Catholic University of Leuven on 14/1/97.
1997
Source: http://www.bis.org/review/r970116.pdf?frames=0
Remarks by the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System, Mr. Alan Greenspan, at the Catholic University of Leuven on 14/1/97.
1997
Source: http://www.bis.org/review/r970116.pdf?frames=0
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