Friday, June 28, 2013

HSG - 126. Notes on an International Monetary Group Meeting


126. Notes on an International Monetary Group Meeting

I. Exchange Rate Arrangements
A. Proposal for Article IV

II. Gold

A. The United States and France have reached an agreement on gold that will settle the question of whether or not countries may purchase gold sold by the Trust Fund. This agreement, if accepted by other countries, will enable the early establishment of the Trust Fund.

B. This latest agreement is secret for the time being!



Source: http://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v31/d126

Thursday, June 27, 2013

SnB - What is money really about?

A brief introduction to the Swiss National Bank

The contents at a glance

The chapter on Money (page 4 onwards) tells you what money is, why we need it
and where our money comes from. [Money > Uses of money > Barter > Exchange value > Means
of payment > Banknotes > Central banks > Gold reserves]

The chapter on Banks (page 14 onwards) explains what interest is, how banks
increase the supply of money and how the National Bank acts as banker to the
banks. [Commercial banks > Interest > Banks as intermediaries > Increasing the supply of money >
Banking Law > Relationship with the National Bank > Electronic payments]

The chapter on Monetary policy (page 24 onwards) shows how the National Bank
supplies the country with money and why it also influences the money in our pocket.
[Money supply > Inflation, Deflation > Inflation forecast > Management of the money supply > Repo
transactions, Foreign exchange swaps > Monetary policy scenario> Exchange rates > Euro]

The chapter on the SNB (page 36 onwards) describes what sort of organisation
the Swiss National Bank is. [Functions of the SNB > Statutory basis > Independence> Services
provided to the Confederation > Organisation]

Source: www.snb.ch/e/welt/contact/pdf/bro_a_e.pdf

SnB - Some TidBits

The world of SnB:

How much does it cost to produce a banknote?
Who set up the first bank?
What is really meant by a "strong" franc?
What sort of professional qualifications do the National Bank's staff have?
Anything else you would like to know?


Source: http://www.snb.ch/e/welt/index.html


1/ Some questions and answers on money




4/ Some questions and answers on the National Bank

What sort of professional qualifications do the National Bank's staff have?
Does the National Bank have any competitors?
Who owns the National Bank?
Why does the National Bank have two Head Offices?
Doesn't the independence of the National Bank conflict with Switzerland's democratic principles?
Does the National Bank make a profit every year?
Is it possible to visit the National Bank?
How can I find out more about the National Bank?

SnB - Credit - is the sky the limit?

Jean-Pierre Danthine, Vice-Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National BankICMB, Geneva, 16.04.2013

"Over the past few years, the growth of credit volumes has been significant, with the result that credit volumes relative to gross domestic product (GDP) have reached new historical peaks in Switzerland. Together with persistently increasing real estate prices, this spells out conditions that may lead to subsequent financial instability. How can we understand these recent developments in credit volumes? And can this understanding form a basis for predicting the likely future evolution of this variable in Switzerland?
Clearly the credit-to-GDP ratio cannot grow indefinitely because otherwise the cost of servicing of the debt would end up exhausting the whole of GDP. The recent development must therefore either be viewed as a structural adjustment to a new plateau, or as a cyclical upswing to be followed by a later correction.
Although structural factors can possibly explain a high level of credit-to-GDP in Switzerland in international comparison, they are unlikely to rationalize the most recent upward move in this ratio. By contrast, cyclical drivers appear highly plausible in the current circumstances. Specifically, the long period of ultra-low interest rates feeding into and being reinforced by rising real estate prices, combined with the potential for some behavioral biases, have a higher explanatory power.
The lessons from this analysis are crystal clear. The recent developments in the credit market translate for the Swiss economy into a state of high vulnerability requiring caution and the exercise of responsibility by all concerned. The activation of the countercyclical capital buffer and the adoption of other prudential measures have to be seen in this perspective."

...

Pg.13 - Domestic credit in SUI: levels - Substantial increase in credit-to-GDP ratio driven by persistent strong credit growth
(Figures 2a and 2b)

Pg.14 - Credit-to-GDP: international comparison
(Figure 3)

pg.15 - Long-term development of credit-to-GDP in Switzerland
(Figure 4)

...

How to explain increasing credit-to-GDP ratios in general?
• Improved credit access due to structural reduction of supply side constraints (financial liberalization, innovation)
• Structural increase in credit demand (e.g. growth opportunities, cultural changes or demographic shift)
• Extended period of low interest rate
• Overconfidence and misjudgement of borrowers and/or lenders (behavioural biases)

->

Conclusion: the tide will turn
• Current situation in Switzerland: rather a cyclical than a
structural increase in credit-to-GDP
• Eventually, the tide is likely to turn with credit volumes
significantly undershooting nominal GDP growth


Key question: is a smooth reversal possible?

***********************************
Conclusion: fasten your seat belts!
***********************************

• Prolonged period of strong growth in credit and in real
estate prices indicative of financial fragility
• Prudence is key: Adoption of countercyclical capital buffer
and other prudential measures to be seen in this context



Source: http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/speeches/id/ref_20130416_jpd

File: www.snb.ch/en/mmr/speeches/id/ref_20130416_jpd/source/ref_20130416_jpd.en.pdf

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

FSB - Data Gaps Initiative on a common data template for G-SIBs

18 April 2013
 
The recent financial crisis highlighted major gaps in information on the large globally active financial institutions that play a key role in the international financial system. Prior to the crisis, little consistent information was available on the bilateral linkages between such
institutions, or on their common exposures and liabilities to financial sectors and national markets, information that is needed to identify risk concentrations and the build-up of systemic risks. Therefore, as part of a wider initiative to improve data to support financial stability, the G-20 called on the FSB, in close consultation with the IMF, to convene relevant central banks, national supervisors, and other international financial institutions, to develop a common data template for systemically important global financial institutions. An FSB working group was established to deliver essential improvements to the availability, quality and consistency of data on these major global financial institutions. Please see the October 2011 FSB Consultative Paperfor a detailed recall of the context of the project.
The specific mandate, which addresses recommendation 8 and 9 in the November 2009 joint IMF-FSB Report to the G20 "The Financial Crisis and Information Gaps", includes, to:
  • develop proposals for implementing a new common data template for globally systemic institutions for the purpose of better understanding the exposures of these institutions and provide the authorities with a stronger framework for assessing potential systemic risks. The initial template is for global systemically important banks (G-SIBs).
  • develop proposals for implementing a strong international framework that supports improved collection and sharing of information on global systemically important financial institutions to provide authorities with a clearer view of financial networks and assist them in their supervisory and macro-prudential responsibilities.
The FSB has agreed to develop this framework based on an incremental approach that will be implemented by the national home authorities overseeing G-SIBs (as identified under the latest FSB list) and other large banks.
The FSB announces the successful implementation of the first phase of the initiative (Phase 1) with the start in March 2013 of the harmonized collection and pooling of improved consolidated data on bilateral counterparty credit exposures of major systemic banks, as well as their consolidated aggregated exposures. The latter are to be reported according to the guidelines already implemented in the context of the international banking statistics of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). These confidential data will be held centrally by an international data hub ("data hub") that will be hosted by the BIS, and reports based on these data will be shared only with national supervisory authorities participating in the network pursuant to a multilateral framework.
Participating authorities have formed a Governance Group to oversee the pooling and sharing of information.
Extensions of the project will be considered in stages to progressively expand and enhance the framework potentially with improved data on bilateral funding dependencies (Phase 2) and consolidated balance sheet (Phase 3).
Following implementation, participating national authorities will take responsibilities to maintain the common data template for G-SIBs and provide further technical support and guidance to reporters...

Source:  http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/publications/r_130418.htm

File: www.financialstabilityboard.org/publications/r_130418.pdf

Thursday, June 20, 2013

FSB - SB Chair Letter sent to the G20 Ministers and Governors


SB Chair Letter sent to the G20 Ministers and Governors

19 April 2013


To G20 Ministers and Central Bank Governors

Progress of Financial Reforms
We have sent for your upcoming meeting reports assessing progress in three key areas of reform to create a more resilient global financial system, one that is better able to support long-term economic and employment growth. They cover:
  • Implementation of the Basel III capital and liquidity requirements, supporting the goal of increasing the resilience of banks and banking systems;
  • Implementation of reforms to resolution regimes, supporting the goal of ending "too big to fail";
  • Implementation of OTC derivatives reforms, supporting the goals of reducing systemic risks and creating continuous core markets.
Although important steps have been taken to strengthen the system, we are only part-way through a multi-year financial reform process, whose successful completion will require our continued cooperation and our sustained focus and effort.  It is especially important that, as we seek to reduce systemic risks from interconnectedness, we strive to maintain an integrated global financial system.
A resilient and global system will provide credit most efficiently and support strong, sustainable and balanced global growth.  We need to continue to re-build confidence in the long-term robustness of the global financial system and resist pressures to ring-fence national markets

Source: http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/publications/r_130419a.htm

and

Source: www.financialstabilityboard.org/publications/r_130419a.pdf

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

ECB - On the international spillovers of US Quantitative Easing

Working Paper SerieS
NO 1557 / june 2013
On the international spillovers of US Quantitative Easing
Marcel Fratzscher, Marco Lo Duca and Roland Straub

"...Fourth and finally, there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the extent that countries’ capital flows and asset prices react to Fed QE measures. In particular EME policy makers may have tried to shield themselves from the described spillover effects, such as through interventions in foreign exchange markets – with FX reserves of many EMEs increasing dramatically between 2009 and 2011 – or by introducing capital controls. We find evidence that countries with better institutions and more active monetary policy have been affected less by Fed policies. By contrast, there is no evidence that having a pegged exchange rate regime or a less open capital account helped countries insulate themselves from QE policy spillovers, conversely, they might have amplified the pro-cyclical impact of Fed policies. This lends further credence to the hypothesis that the portfolio rebalancing effects of Fed QE policies are at least in part explained by risk and a flight-to-safety phenomenon.
The findings of the paper have a number of implications. They support the argument that US unconventional monetary policy measures have affected capital flows to EMEs in a procyclical manner, and have raised asset prices globally and weakened the US dollar. This suggests that there is indeed an important global dimension to and externalities from monetary policy decisions in advanced economies. However, the paper is mute on whether such externalities are overall positive or negative for other economies – as the potentially undesirable effects of these measure on the pro-cyclicality of EME capital flows need to be weighed against potential benefits such as e.g. through higher economic activity and a better financial market functioning in the global economy..."

Source: http://t.co/eO3rmV2o5U

IMF - BOP

The Balance of Payments Manual published by the International Monetary Fund provides accounting standards for balance of payments reporting and analysis for many countries. The Bureau of Economic Analysis adheres to this standard...

Monday, June 17, 2013